Interpreting data from Time series - TSN

Read and quantify values from time-series graphs, then use Trend, Seasonality and Noise (TSN) to describe patterns, identify cycles and unusual points, calculate change, and make a justified prediction.

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Te reo Māori terms

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Learning objective overview

Master Teaching Guide coverage for this objective.

Resources

  • Beta: Time series - TSN Skills in Ex 31.03, pg 590

Terminology

  • Trend (long-term direction)
  • Seasonality (repeating pattern)
  • Noise (variation / spikes)
  • Cycle
  • Fluctuation
  • Peak / Trough

Task goals

  • Read a specific value at a given time point directly off a time series graph.
  • Describe the long-term trend in a full sentence using increasing/decreasing language (never positive/negative), and calculate the amount or percentage change along it.
  • Identify seasonality from a graph, including the length of one full cycle and the peak/trough months or quarters.
  • Identify a noise point that doesn't fit the surrounding pattern, and distinguish genuine noise from the start of a new trend by checking whether later points resume the original pattern.
  • Read a dashed trend/prediction line to make a basic numeric prediction, and explain why such predictions can be inaccurate.
  • Recognise when strong seasonality masks an underlying trend, by comparing same-period values (e.g. this Q1 vs. last Q1) across cycles.

Key skills

  • Time series
  • Trend
  • Seasonality
  • Noise
  • TSN

Quick stats

  • 81 total questions
  • 3 difficulty levels
  • Answers included