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Learning objective overview
Master Teaching Guide coverage for this objective.
Current NZC (2007)
S5-2
New NZC (2026)
NZC26-P4-PRO-ETP-P-Y9-03NZC26-P3-PRO-EP-K-Y7-01
Resources
- Other: Not in Beta Textbook; no verified external resource found (Master Guide's only listed link was a bled-in Simplifying Algebraic Fractions worksheet, unrelated to this LO)
Terminology
- probability assumptions
- fair device
- equally likely outcomes
- random experiment
- bias
- theoretical probability
- experimental probability
- sample size
- independence
Task goals
- Identify the three core assumptions of theoretical probability: fair devices, equally likely outcomes, and random processes.
- Explain why each assumption matters and what happens when an assumption is violated.
- Distinguish between what is possible and what is likely in a probability context.
- Use sample size and experimental data to judge whether evidence of bias is convincing.
- Evaluate probability claims in real-world contexts and identify hidden or unstated assumptions.
- Critique faulty probability reasoning and explain where the logic breaks down.
Where this fits
What leads into this objective, and where it goes next.
Before
No prerequisite objective linked yet.
You are here
Probability assumptions
Do
Comparing experimental probability (from at least 30 trials) to theoretical probability for a chance experiment, and explaining why they differ and how increasing the number of trials reduces this difference
Statement▸
Year 9 · Probability · Experimental and theoretical probability
NZC26-P4-PRO-ETP-P-Y9-03
Next
The official curriculum has no separate Year 10 statements for Probability — Year 9 Probability spans the phase. Try the Statistics strand’s Year 10 statements.
For teachers
Need the fuller teaching notes for this objective? Open the Teacher guidance PDF.