Basic Probability

Introduce probability as a value between 0 (impossible) and 1 (certain), using everyday likelihood language before calculation; distinguish theoretical from experimental probability; and use a sample space (dice, spinners, cards, counters) to find a basic probability as favourable outcomes over total outcomes.

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Learning objective overview

Master Teaching Guide coverage for this objective.

Current NZC (2007)
  • S4-4
  • S4-3
New NZC (2026)
  • NZC26-P4-PRO-ETP-P-Y9-02
  • NZC26-P4-PRO-ETP-K-Y9-08
  • NZC26-P4-PRO-ETP-K-Y9-07
  • NZC26-P4-PRO-ETP-K-Y9-03
  • NZC26-P4-PRO-ETP-P-Y9-06

Resources

  • Beta: Skills in Ex 33.01, pg 615
  • Dr Austin Maths - Theoretical Probability with Dice Practice GridQuestions PDF · Answers
  • Dr Austin Maths - Theoretical Probability with Spinners Practice GridQuestions PDF · Answers
  • Dr Austin Maths - Theoretical Probability with Counters Practice GridQuestions PDF · Answers
  • Dr Austin Maths - Theoretical Probability with Playing Cards Practice GridQuestions PDF · Answers

Terminology

  • Outcome
  • Favourable outcome
  • Sample space
  • Independent event
  • Dependent event
  • Mutually exclusive
  • Certain (P = 1)
  • Impossible (P = 0)
  • Likely / Unlikely
  • Random

Task goals

  • Place an event on a 0-to-1 probability scale and describe its likelihood using everyday language (impossible, unlikely, even chance, likely, certain).
  • Distinguish theoretical probability (calculated from a sample space of equally likely outcomes) from experimental probability (based on trial results), and explain that experimental results vary between repeated trials even when the theoretical probability is fixed.
  • Identify the sample space of a simple experiment (a die, a spinner, a deck of cards, a bag of counters) and use it to find a basic probability as favourable outcomes over total outcomes.
  • Express a basic probability as a fraction, a decimal, and a percentage.
  • Use the complement rule (P(not A) = 1 - P(A)) and recognise that mutually exclusive event probabilities add, while independent event probabilities multiply.
  • Explain why a calculated probability outside the range 0 to 1 must be an error.

Where this fits

What leads into this objective, and where it goes next.

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Basic Probability

Basic Probability

Do

Systematically listing outcomes for the sample space

Statement▸
Year 9 · Probability · Experimental and theoretical probability
NZC26-P4-PRO-ETP-P-Y9-02
Know

The estimated probability of an event from an experiment is the number of times the event happens divided by the total number of trials in the experiment (i.e. the relative frequency for that event).

Statement▸
Year 9 · Probability · Experimental and theoretical probability
NZC26-P4-PRO-ETP-K-Y9-08

Next

The official curriculum has no separate Year 10 statements for Probability — Year 9 Probability spans the phase. Try the Statistics strand’s Year 10 statements. Or extend with: Inverse Normal Distribution, The Standard Normal Distribution.

Explore the whole sequence →