Probabilities from experiments and statistical

Task goals

• Read a completed frequency table from a chance experiment and state the relative (experimental) frequency of a stated outcome as a fraction or decimal.
• State the theoretical probability of an outcome for a fair model (a fair coin, die, or spinner with equally likely outcomes).
• Calculate the experimental probability of an outcome from raw trial counts, and compare it to the theoretical probability of the same event.
• Explain why increasing the number of trials tends to bring the experimental probability closer to the theoretical probability, and judge which of two experiments (different trial counts) gives the more reliable estimate.
• Estimate an unknown probability from a survey or sample (e.g. defect rate, raffle-ticket win rate) using relative frequency, and use that estimate to predict an outcome in a larger population.
• Critique a probability claim based on a small or unrepresentative sample, explaining the flaw in the reasoning (including gambler's-fallacy-style claims about independent trials).